2006-11-19

Catastrophe: An Investigation into the Origins of Modern Civilization by David Keys (2000)

describes how dramatic changes in 530s A.D. in the climate (likely caused by a major volcanic eruption in Krakatoa, Sumatra) and associated cold period and crop failures, and the plague spread by rodents from ancient African ports in the current day Somalia, led to the accelerated fall of the Roman Empire, the rise and fall of Avar Emprire (and Slav tribes as associated) rise and fall of the Persian Empire, the birth of Islam as a religion and as a violently conquering government ideology. In addition just in Euroasia, it triggered the Turkish conquest of much of Europe, created the "forgetten" Jewish state of Khazar, formulated England, Ireland, France, Spain as we know them today. In other parts of the world, there were major turmoils in China, Korea, Japan in the same period (based many of these same basic reasons as described above). In the Americas, multiple empires fall at the same time too (and created religious bloodbaths trying to appease the Gods), including the Teotihuacan, Tikal, Nascan, Moche, while other empires like Maya, Huari and Inca did spring up in those very same places. It should be noted that Anasazi society in the current day Arizona, US did survive these calamities and were able to accelerate their own development to fight the consequences.
So why is this relevant today? There are multiple volcanic areas with increasing activity around the world capable of producing magma multiple times of the quantity during the eruption in 535 A.D., including Yellowstone and Long Valley, CA in the US, near Naples in Italy and in Rabaul, Papua New Guinea. An eruption of one of these super volcanoes, would abruptly change the world's current political and economical setup. There is a chance that some or many of the First World countries might survive in some form, but order in other locations would likely fully break down, sinking into utter chaos, as it did back in those times.

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